{"id":3153,"date":"2023-07-03T15:15:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T13:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/?p=3153"},"modified":"2024-01-10T15:17:46","modified_gmt":"2024-01-10T14:17:46","slug":"avant-la-treve-estivale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/","title":{"rendered":"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t

A Sintra, la BCE adopte un ton plus ferme qu\u2019anticip\u00e9.<\/strong> En effet, lors de son discours d\u2019ouverture, Christine Lagarde a rappel\u00e9 que sa politique mon\u00e9taire devait rester durablement restrictive, sans toutefois donner la cible de taux terminal de l\u2019institution. Une hausse de taux aura ainsi bel et bien lieu en juillet, l\u2019objectif \u00e9tant de freiner la demande pour s\u2019approcher de la cible des 2 %. Toutefois, aucune d\u00e9cision ne semble prise pour septembre, et comme souvent rappel\u00e9 par les membres de la BCE, les perspectives du resserrement mon\u00e9taire resteront d\u00e9pendantes des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques. A ce titre, si les statistiques de pr\u00eats en zone euro s\u2019inscrivent en baisse et confirment la transmission de la politique mon\u00e9taire \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle, les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation du mois de juin ne dressent quant \u00e0 elles pas un ralentissement suffisant aux yeux la BCE. En effet, l\u2019attention de l\u2019institution est principalement port\u00e9e sur les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation sous-jacente qui ne semblent ralentir que progressivement.<\/p>\n

Au Japon, si les indicateurs semblent pourtant pousser la banque centrale, l\u2019institution maintient son cap.<\/strong> La publication des donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation a confirm\u00e9 la durabilit\u00e9 des pressions inflationnistes, attirant l\u2019attention des investisseurs. Pour le 9\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif, l\u2019indicateur PMI des services reste en territoire expansionniste, confirmant que la demande domestique continuera de porter la hausse des prix. A l\u2019inverse, le secteur de l\u2019industrie passe en territoire de contraction. Au global, les indicateurs continuent d\u2019\u00eatre propices \u00e0 un ajustement de la politique mon\u00e9taire du Japon, soutenant des perspectives favorables pour le yen. Toutefois, \u00e0 l\u2019inverse de la BCE et de la Fed, le gouverneur de la Banque du Japon justifie quant \u00e0 lui le maintien d\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire accommodante par l\u2019inflation hors \u00e9nergie et alimentation. En ce sens, Kazuo Ueda se tient pr\u00eat \u00e0 ajuster sa politique mon\u00e9taire en cas de signaux convaincants de remont\u00e9e de l\u2019inflation sous-jacente. Malgr\u00e9 tout, les perspectives li\u00e9es aux changements \u00e0 la t\u00eate de la BoJ combin\u00e9es aux valorisations relativement attractives permettent un regain d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des investisseurs pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie nippone.<\/p>\n

Les pays \u00e9mergents \u00e9voluent quant \u00e0 eux en ordre dispers\u00e9. En Chine, la reprise \u00e9conomique semble s\u2019essouffler.<\/strong> En effet, la publication des indices PMI de juin a t\u00e9moign\u00e9 d\u2019un ralentissement de la dynamique du rebond chinois. Pour le troisi\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif, le secteur manufacturier reste en contraction tandis que le secteur des services ralentit. En r\u00e9action \u00e0 l\u2019essoufflement du rebond, le yuan a poursuivi son mouvement de d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation, motivant ainsi la Banque centrale \u00e0 renforcer son soutien \u00e0 la devise. Dans ce cadre, un soutien suppl\u00e9mentaire de la part des autorit\u00e9s est fortement attendu par les investisseurs, malgr\u00e9 les tentatives d\u2019interventions budg\u00e9taire et mon\u00e9taire d\u00e9j\u00e0 mises en oeuvre. En effet, si la Banque centrale a d\u00e9j\u00e0 entam\u00e9 un assouplissement mon\u00e9taire afin de soutenir le march\u00e9 immobilier ainsi que le march\u00e9 du cr\u00e9dit, l\u2019ampleur de l\u2019intervention a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9\u00e7u les investisseurs qui en attendent d\u00e9sormais davantage. En parall\u00e8le, l\u2019assouplissement mon\u00e9taire au Br\u00e9sil semble quant \u00e0 lui se rapprocher.<\/strong> Si l\u2019on en croit le compte-rendu de la derni\u00e8re r\u00e9union de la Banque centrale, la majorit\u00e9 penche vers une baisse des taux directeurs en ao\u00fbt d\u2019ailleurs largement encourag\u00e9e par le gouvernement de Lula. En effet, alors que l\u2019inflation a atteint un point bas \u00e0 3,4 %, elle se rapproche d\u00e9sormais de la cible fix\u00e9e par l\u2019institution. Cette hypoth\u00e8se de baisse des taux intervient alors que les indicateurs dressent un tableau favorable de la dynamique du pays. Sur fonds de hausse des indicateurs PMI et de croissance, le Br\u00e9sil a regagn\u00e9 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des investisseurs. Tandis que la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 du gouvernement de Lula en a \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u2019un des catalyseurs, le real br\u00e9silien affiche l\u2019une des meilleures performances de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Les march\u00e9s entament la seconde partie de l\u2019ann\u00e9e sur fond de pr\u00e9occupations diverses. Dans un contexte o\u00f9 les investisseurs retrouvent pourtant de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque, nous porterons une attention particuli\u00e8re aux niveaux de valorisation des supports actions s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9s et privil\u00e9gierons la qualit\u00e9. En parall\u00e8le, nous maintenons nos positions obligataires en favorisant les actifs dits investment grade ainsi que les durations courtes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":3148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[9],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAvant la tr\u00eave estivale - Monts\u00e9gur Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale - Monts\u00e9gur Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monts\u00e9gur Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-03T13:15:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-10T14:17:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/05\/adobestock_123462732_mtsg-1024x485-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"485\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/\",\"name\":\"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale - Monts\u00e9gur Finance\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-03T13:15:08+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-10T14:17:46+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0f05ff428d4800cbc1229d12c7013b4f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Actualit\u00e9s de l'investisseur\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Edito\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\",\"name\":\"Monts\u00e9gur Finance\",\"description\":\"Investir. Cr\u00e9er. Construire.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0f05ff428d4800cbc1229d12c7013b4f\",\"name\":\"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/author\/montsegur\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale - Monts\u00e9gur Finance","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale - Monts\u00e9gur Finance","og_url":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/","og_site_name":"Monts\u00e9gur Finance","article_published_time":"2023-07-03T13:15:08+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-01-10T14:17:46+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":485,"url":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/05\/adobestock_123462732_mtsg-1024x485-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/","url":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/","name":"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale - Monts\u00e9gur Finance","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-07-03T13:15:08+00:00","dateModified":"2024-01-10T14:17:46+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0f05ff428d4800cbc1229d12c7013b4f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/avant-la-treve-estivale\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Accueil","item":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Actualit\u00e9s de l'investisseur","item":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Edito","item":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"Avant la tr\u00eave estivale"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/","name":"Monts\u00e9gur Finance","description":"Investir. Cr\u00e9er. Construire.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0f05ff428d4800cbc1229d12c7013b4f","name":"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/"],"url":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/author\/montsegur\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3153"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3155,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3153\/revisions\/3155"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}