{"id":2465,"date":"2023-03-13T14:36:33","date_gmt":"2023-03-13T13:36:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/?p=2465"},"modified":"2023-04-25T09:52:56","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T07:52:56","slug":"un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/","title":{"rendered":"Un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la guerre"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>A la date anniversaire du conflit entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine, les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques sont raviv\u00e9es sur la sc\u00e8ne internationale.<\/strong> Les discours tenus tant par les Etats-Unis et l\u2019Europe, que par la Chine et la Russie, ne laissent pas pressentir une r\u00e9solution du conflit sur le court-terme. \u00c0 la suite de la conf\u00e9rence de Munich, le conflit a prit une nouvelle dimension face aux accusations des Etats-Unis quant \u00e0 la potentielle volont\u00e9 de la Chine d\u2019envoyer des armes \u00e0 la Russie. Les impacts sur les \u00e9quilibres des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res seront \u00e0 surveiller et constitueront un point non n\u00e9gligeable pour la trajectoire d\u2019inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Les donn\u00e9es publi\u00e9es aux \u00c9tats-Unis ont confirm\u00e9 que la lutte contre l\u2019inflation \u00e9tait loin d\u2019\u00eatre gagn\u00e9e<\/strong>. Apr\u00e8s leur ralentissement, les pressions inflationnistes sont en effet reparties \u00e0 la hausse au mois de janvier. Toutefois, les m\u00e9nages continuent de consommer et d\u2019\u00e9pargner. Le ralentissement de l\u2019inflation et de la croissance attendu par l\u2019institution semble dans ce cadre trop mod\u00e9r\u00e9 pour envisager la fin du resserrement mon\u00e9taire. <strong>Quant \u00e0 l\u2019homologue europ\u00e9en, la BCE a r\u00e9it\u00e9r\u00e9 devant le Parlement europ\u00e9en sa volont\u00e9 de relever ses taux de 50 points de base en mars<\/strong>. L\u2019am\u00e9lioration des perspectives ainsi que les risques sur l\u2019inflation sous-jacente continuent de plaider en faveur d\u2019une hausse des taux, permettant \u00e0 l\u2019institution d\u2019atteindre des niveaux sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 3 %.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Au Japon, Kazuo Ueda a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9sign\u00e9 pour succ\u00e9der \u00e0 Haruhiko Kuroda au poste de gouverneur de la banque centrale<\/strong>. Dans ce cadre, son audition a particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9t\u00e9 attendue par le march\u00e9 afin d\u2019\u00e9valuer le profil du futur gouverneur de l\u2019institution. Jugeant le redressement de l\u2019inflation insuffisant, son discours aura finalement mis en avant le souhait de durablement maintenir une politique accommodante. S\u2019il estime que l\u2019inflation est en grande partie due \u00e0 des facteurs externes tels que le prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res ou la faiblesse de la devise, Kazuo Ueda attend une dynamique tir\u00e9e par la demande domestique avant d\u2019op\u00e9rer un changement notable dans la politique mon\u00e9taire. Dans l\u2019intervalle, la Banque du Japon continuera ses injections de liquidit\u00e9s et le second semestre devrait offrir davantage de visibilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Quant aux pays \u00e9mergents, la situation \u00e9volue en ordre dispers\u00e9. <strong>En Inde, si l\u2019inflation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale est revenue sur les niveaux cibles de la banque centrale, l\u2019inflation sous-jacente continue d\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer<\/strong>. L\u2019institution a alors de nouveau relev\u00e9 ses taux, restant dispos\u00e9e \u00e0 continuer sur cette lanc\u00e9e. Illustratif des effets de second tour dans une \u00e9conomie certes diff\u00e9rente de l\u2019Europe, la situation continue d\u2019appeler \u00e0 la prudence quant \u00e0 une rapide rechute de l\u2019inflation. <strong>Au Br\u00e9sil, les propos de Lula quant \u00e0 la cible d\u2019inflation remettent \u00e0 l\u2019ordre du jour une pol\u00e9mique politique<\/strong>. A peine quelques temps apr\u00e8s sa prise de fonction, Lula a en effet d\u00e9j\u00e0 formul\u00e9 des critiques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du niveau des taux directeurs qu\u2019il estime trop \u00e9lev\u00e9, de la cible d\u2019inflation qu\u2019il juge trop rigoureuse, tout en remettant en question l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance de la Banque centrale. Notons n\u00e9anmoins que la poursuite du resserrement mon\u00e9taire dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s contraint dans une certaine mesure les banques centrales des pays \u00e9mergents \u00e0 travers le risque li\u00e9 au taux de change. <strong>Enfin, en Chine, les derni\u00e8res donn\u00e9es t\u00e9moignent d\u2019une l\u00e9g\u00e8re acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019inflation, toutefois toujours inf\u00e9rieure au seuil de la banque centrale<\/strong>. Par ailleurs, les f\u00eates du Nouvel An chinois ne semblent pas avoir provoqu\u00e9 un rebond marqu\u00e9 des contaminations, permettant au gouvernement de se concentrer sur un retour de la croissance. Si les m\u00e9nages ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 accumuler une \u00e9pargne relativement importante ces derniers trimestres, les autorit\u00e9s souhaitent motiver son utilisation. Coupl\u00e9es \u00e0 un impact r\u00e9duit de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, les mesures de soutiens budg\u00e9taire et mon\u00e9taire rassurent les investisseurs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Apr\u00e8s un d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e en fanfare en Europe mais plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9 aux Etats-Unis, nous restons attentifs aux valorisations et profitons des s\u00e9ances de rebond pour mat\u00e9rialiser des profits. Sur les niveaux actuels, nous surveillons de pr\u00e8s les diff\u00e9rents indicateurs \u00e9conomiques afin de ne pas prendre de risque prononc\u00e9 sur nos allocations g\u00e9ographiques. En parall\u00e8le, nous continuons de repond\u00e9rer nos expositions aux march\u00e9s obligataires en augmentant la sensibilit\u00e9 aux taux des portefeuilles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":1086,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[9],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.14 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la guerre - Monts\u00e9gur Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la guerre - Monts\u00e9gur Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monts\u00e9gur Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-13T13:36:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-25T07:52:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/01\/AdobeStock_45989133_MTSG.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"666\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/\",\"name\":\"Un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la guerre - Monts\u00e9gur Finance\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-13T13:36:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-25T07:52:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0f05ff428d4800cbc1229d12c7013b4f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/un-an-apres-le-debut-de-la-guerre\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Actualit\u00e9s de l'investisseur\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Edito\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"Un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but de la guerre\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\",\"name\":\"Monts\u00e9gur Finance\",\"description\":\"Investir. 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