{"id":1496,"date":"2023-02-04T18:20:06","date_gmt":"2023-02-04T17:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/?p=1496"},"modified":"2023-02-17T11:45:02","modified_gmt":"2023-02-17T10:45:02","slug":"2023-demarre-en-fanfare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 d\u00e9marre en fanfare"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote alignleft col-12 col-md-3\"><blockquote><p>Tandis que la nouvelle salve de r\u00e9unions des banquiers centraux approche, les derniers indicateurs publi\u00e9s aux Etats-Unis ont plaid\u00e9 en faveur d\u2019un ralentissement du rythme de resserrement mon\u00e9taire de la Fed. <\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pour cause, la tr\u00e8s attendue publication de l\u2019inflation CPI t\u00e9moignant d\u2019un repli de l\u2019inflation en rythme mensuel et annuel. En parall\u00e8le, le rebond de la confiance des consommateurs renforce l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de \u00ab\u00a0l\u2019atterrissage en douceur\u00a0\u00bb de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine en 2023. Dans cet environnement, si les donn\u00e9es militent pour un chemin encore lointain avant que l\u2019inflation atteigne la cible des 2 %, l\u2019urgence \u00e0 agir pour la Fed se r\u00e9duit et la r\u00e9silience de l\u2019activit\u00e9 plaide pour le \u00ab\u00a0<em>high for longer<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb. En arri\u00e8re-plan, ce sont les discussions relatives au plafond de la dette qui retiennent l\u2019attention. En effet, l\u2019\u00c9tat est contraint de limiter la hausse de ses d\u00e9penses afin d\u2019\u00e9viter un potentiel d\u00e9faut sur sa dette, alors que le seuil en vigueur de 31\u00a0400 MM$ a \u00e9t\u00e9 atteint en janvier. Une des solutions r\u00e9siderait dans le mode d\u2019expression de la valeur\u00a0qui passerait en pourcentage du PIB.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote alignright col-12 col-md-3\"><blockquote><p>Quant \u00e0 la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne, le travail semble encore loin d\u2019\u00eatre termin\u00e9 dans la lutte contre les pressions inflationnistes.<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n<p>Si la vigueur de l\u2019inflation a donn\u00e9 raison aux arguments des membres \u00ab hawkish \u00bb, elle a par ailleurs constitu\u00e9 un point de vigilance non-n\u00e9gligeable pour l\u2019institution. Les cons\u00e9quences sur la consommation des m\u00e9nages se sont dans ce cadre refl\u00e9t\u00e9es dans les donn\u00e9es des PIB du T4 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2022. Ainsi, la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 pour la banque centrale de lutter contre les pressions inflationnistes se fait toujours urgente compte-tenu tout d\u2019abord de la perte de pouvoir d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages qui s\u2019accentue. Par ailleurs, le ralentissement \u00e9conomique moins prononc\u00e9 que pressenti n\u2019est finalement pas suffisant pour permettre une rechute durable des prix. Les indicateurs d\u2019activit\u00e9s PMI publi\u00e9s en janvier sont globalement ressortis sup\u00e9rieurs aux attentes. Le soutien budg\u00e9taire des diff\u00e9rents \u00c9tats explique en partie le ralentissement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie europ\u00e9enne, alors qu\u2019un espoir additionnel r\u00e9side dans la capacit\u00e9 de la Chine \u00e0 permettre d\u2019\u00e9viter une r\u00e9cession en Europe. A l\u2019instar de son homologue am\u00e9ricain mais dans des conditions diff\u00e9rentes, l\u2019atteinte de la cible des 2 % semble encore \u00e9loign\u00e9e pour la Banque Centrale Europ\u00e9enne.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote alignleft col-12 col-md-3\"><blockquote><p>En Chine, la normalisation progressive de la situation \u00e9conomique conforte les investisseurs. <\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n<p>Suite \u00e0 la publication des derniers indicateurs \u00e9conomiques, le march\u00e9 semble d\u00e9j\u00e0 int\u00e9grer un retour marqu\u00e9 de la croissance chinoise sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e. La contribution du pays \u00e0 la croissance mondiale pourrait ainsi de nouveau \u00eatre positive, et fait d\u00e9j\u00e0 bondir la confiance des investisseurs tandis que les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res voient un soutien \u00e0 leur progression.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote alignleft col-12 col-md-3\"><blockquote><p>Au Japon, les derni\u00e8res donn\u00e9es dressent un tableau positif pour la banque centrale, tandis que l\u2019inflation commence \u00e0 s\u2019installer. <\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n<p>Les derni\u00e8res publications des indicateurs PMI ont t\u00e9moign\u00e9 de l\u2019expansion de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique au sein de l\u2019archipel, port\u00e9e par le secteur des services. Pour la Banque du Japon, cette dynamique \u00e9conomique peut constituer un \u00e9l\u00e9ment non n\u00e9gligeable \u00e0 l\u2019atteinte de sa cible d\u2019inflation, car elle favoriserait notamment un rebond des salaires. L\u2019institution pourrait ainsi commencer \u00e0 adopter une approche moins accommodante. En parall\u00e8le, l\u2019inflation surprend mois apr\u00e8s mois \u00e0 la hausse, contribuant aux pressions haussi\u00e8res sur la devise. M\u00eame si cela joue en faveur du retrait de la Banque du Japon, le risque de rechute de l\u2019inflation reste \u00e9lev\u00e9 tant que l\u2019\u00e9volution des salaires ne sera pas jug\u00e9e suffisante.<\/p>\n<p>Si le d\u00e9but de la saison de publication des r\u00e9sultats incite \u00e0 la prudence au moins en premi\u00e8re partie d\u2019ann\u00e9e, le second semestre devrait apporter plus de visibilit\u00e9. Quant aux march\u00e9s obligataires, apr\u00e8s une ann\u00e9e 2022 difficile, les niveaux de rendement actuels offrent des opportunit\u00e9s attractives sur plusieurs segments. Compte tenu du potentiel ralentissement \u00e9conomique, le segment Investment Grade sera pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 au High Yield. Par ailleurs, dans la perspective d\u2019un ralentissement de l\u2019inflation, il semblera opportun d\u2019augmenter graduellement la sensibilit\u00e9 des portefeuilles. Au regard du risque de change sur le dollar am\u00e9ricain, nous privil\u00e9gierons en premier lieu le cr\u00e9dit europ\u00e9en.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[9],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.14 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2023 d\u00e9marre en fanfare - Monts\u00e9gur Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023 d\u00e9marre en fanfare - Monts\u00e9gur Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Monts\u00e9gur Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-04T17:20:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-17T10:45:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/01\/AdobeStock_123462732_MTSG.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"948\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"L&#039;\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe Monts\u00e9gur\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/\",\"name\":\"2023 d\u00e9marre en fanfare - Monts\u00e9gur Finance\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-04T17:20:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-02-17T10:45:02+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#\/schema\/person\/0f05ff428d4800cbc1229d12c7013b4f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/2023-demarre-en-fanfare\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Actualit\u00e9s de l'investisseur\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Edito\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/actualites\/edito-fr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"2023 d\u00e9marre en fanfare\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.montsegur.com\/\",\"name\":\"Monts\u00e9gur Finance\",\"description\":\"Investir. 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